Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”